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Tag Archives: US Real Estate market weakens

Please don’t ‘like’ me. But please don’t not like me either.

Published on May 17, 2012 by admin in market hype

  On this eve of the greatest IPO in history (Facebook), I have this to say…. I recently read an article by a US securities compliance lawyer about the perils exposed to investment advisors via social media websites. The upshot from the article (my understanding at least) was that investment advisors should try to ensure no one ‘likes’ them on Facebook because it may […] Read the rest of this entry »

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Bounce (in risk assets), where art thou?

Published on May 17, 2012 by admin in greedometer

  What a day. Greece is front and center as fears of imminent melt-down spread. Of far more import than Greece is Spain. The price of Spanish Treasuries is plummeting with the rising yield. What about all those Spanish banks that used cheap LTRO money to buy Spanish sovereign bonds?  There’s a good chance those banks would be insolvent if they had to mark […] Read the rest of this entry »

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Time for a bounce

Published on May 15, 2012 by admin in Investment Calls

Ever mindful of the feedback I receive from family and friends, I was prompted and am compelled to write something positive (for a change).     Risk assets (common stocks, REITS, junk bonds) are over-sold on a short term basis. It’s time for a bounce back. OK, it will likely be short lived, but hey, I’m writing something positive. Here’s something else that’s positive. If […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Top was in April.

  (Important) Housekeeping comments: 1. We’re approaching the date when we will combine 2 weekly email letters into 1. The new letter will contain a very brief summary and website link to facilitate login and access to the entire letter (economic news and data, analysis, the greedometers, and details on the specific investments we plan to buy / sell.) 2. An interactive greedometer gauge […] Read the rest of this entry »

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The Top Cometh…

  The view presented by the greedometers still indicate April is the top for risk assets and that the economic slowdown of 2012 – 2013 began earlier this year. The US economy will probably slow to the point where it stalls completely and falls back into recession in the current quarter. The book (Greedometer. Dow 5000. Why nobody sees it coming.) will go into […] Read the rest of this entry »

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Short Economic Stories April 21 2012

  Another very interesting week from the greedometers. It is increasingly looking like we’re within 2 weeks of a secular (long term) top in risk asset prices. Much more details in the private client letter on Wednesday. Speaking of which, next month will see further progress in terms of converging the 2 weekly letters into 1, and in separating the content displayed in client letters […] Read the rest of this entry »

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Short Economic Stories April 14 2012

Here in the US: From a 40,000ft view, the US economy seems to be slowing from an anemic pace to flat. I’m sticking with an estimate of 1.5 – 2% GDP growth rate for Q1, but 2Q is going to be hard pressed to see any growth at all. Indeed, I’m anticipating an increase in the speed of slowing as we go through the […] Read the rest of this entry »

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Short Economic Stories April 7 2012

Since the beginning of the year, we’ve been watching the latest Fed -and now also ECB induced- bubble inflate. I’ve been trying to discern (with the aid of the greedometers) whether April or July will be a secular stock market peak from which another 50-60% collapse initiates. Granted the Fed and ECB will be forced to come to the rescue in August, but what […] Read the rest of this entry »

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Short Economic Stories March 31 2012

In the US: Mr. Bernanke got the week going with a speech before markets opened on Monday. His comments were interpreted as a sign that more dollar printing would be on the way (hello QE3!). Mind you, there was no explicit commitment. In so doing, Mr. Bernanke is continuing to paint the Fed into a corner and further cementing the reliance of equity markets […] Read the rest of this entry »

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Short Economic Stories March 24 2012

In the US: Weekly initial unemployment claims dropped under 350,000 for the first time in four years. Good. Now if we could find jobs for the 6-7 million others that have lost jobs and fallen out of the UI system, that would be nice. The latest housing data has been a mixed bag. House prices are stabilizing, but sales volumes remain low. And this […] Read the rest of this entry »

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