Category Archives: Stock Market Crash
This year resembled 2007 in several respects. Immediately prior to both years: Wall St. forecast record earnings. The Fed and the majority of economists forecast 3% GDP growth. Yet both years saw wild volatility in stocks that finished where they started. Nearing the end of both years: Wall St was / is calling for record earnings the next year (it must be nice to always think things […] Read the rest of this entry
Italy will need roughly $400B in the first 6 months of 2012. A comprehensive program to keep Italy on life support will be several times this because it will have to support Italy for 3 years and include recapitalizing its banks. And if you’re going to bailout Italy, you’re going to have to cover: Spain, Belgium, France, and Austria (probably in that order). The numbers boggle the […] Read the rest of this entry
This is unreal. Early this morning central bankers made a surprise coordinated move to stop the banking system melt-down in Europe from worsening there, and from spreading beyond Europe. The debt-fueled financial system contagion has been slowly steam-rolling everything in its path. It had reached the point where banks in Europe could not stop it, were not lending to each other, and the ECB was unwilling/unable […] Read the rest of this entry
Today, the IMF stepped into the fray to arrest the creeping financial system melt-down in Europe. The ECB refuses to ramp-up lending to its own, so the IMF is putting everyone’s money at stake instead. Let’s see…. European banks are being supported/ bailed out by their national governments. These national governments are being further bailed out by the supranational entity- the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is hitting […] Read the rest of this entry
Either the US economy and stock market are about to “get well” and initiate another bull market, or things are about to take another leg down. My short term indicator -the mini greedometer- helps provide insight…. The past 4 weeks have seen a stunning amount (all-in?) of bluster, threats, hope, hype, and political games in Europe. Yet there remains no plan to solve […] Read the rest of this entry
Last week the greedometer dropped to 3800 rpm. The nearest analogue – in terms of how the greedometer is behaving — is September 2008. Here’s the historical chart showing the greedometer readings over the past 12 years, and matched to the S&P500…. The red circles are where we are now, and the same reading from the previous 2 […] Read the rest of this entry
Amid rampant speculation, the Fed met for an extended two-day meeting this week. Either the Fed was going to announce something big, or they would announce something sort of big. What we got: The Fed is going to buy $400B in 6-30 year Treasuries, and sell an equal amount of short term (3 year and less maturity) Tnotes. This will happen during the […] Read the rest of this entry
Since the beginning of the year, the greedometer has been indicating the US stock market is going through a secular topping-out process. We had a run at the highs again in July (as expected) — when Triangle Wealth Management placed a warning of a massive impending stock market drop in the Wall Street Journal. A few weeks ago (mid August), the greedometer delivered […] Read the rest of this entry
On August 31st 2011, Triangle Wealth Management ran a full page advertisement in the local newspaper – The Raleigh News and Observer. The response has been overwhelmingly positive. I look forward to an insightful discussion. If you are interested in attending, please drop us an email or call. The criteria for attending: Qualifications. You must: have $400,000 or more in investable assets. (not in […] Read the rest of this entry
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