Category Archives: Japan
Big Picture: Warning: The mini greedometer (tactical risk indicator) is displaying readings previously only seen when the S&P500 was within 5% of a secular (long term) top. The greedometer (strategic risk indicator) is approaching dangerous risk levels as well. There is very little upside and a great deal of downside to risk assets (stocks, junk bonds, commodities, REITs) at this time. A much more […] Read the rest of this entry
Strategic Indicator: Greedometer Last week, the greedometer registered 5400 rpm, a respectable but not unexpected jump from the previous week 4800rpm. And with that, we have the end of the year-end rise in the greedometer. The 2011 set of greedometer readings resemble that of 2007. Indeed, both years saw the last or second to last week finish with a 5400rpm reading. Uncanny. And foreboding. (the […] Read the rest of this entry
Here’s where Japan is 21 years after their credit bubble implosion: the stock market is down roughly 75% . real estate prices are down roughly 70% . Many a fortune has been lost betting that Japanese federal government bonds (JGB) would fall. The fundamentals are terrible: rapidly aging population, overall population beginning to shrink, shrinking workforce, rampant federal gov’t spending, and endless deficits. Yet, JGB continue to maintain […] Read the rest of this entry
I have written about depreciating the dollar before. Here is some recent supporting and related news from our friends in Europe and Japan…. In Europe, something odd is happening. The recently-weaker Euro currency is allowing Germany to experience a mini economic boom. Last week, Germany announced its fastest quarter of economic growth since 1990. I recall writing in a client newsletter about the potential […] Read the rest of this entry
Having lost 2 decades to economic stagnation after a spectacular real estate and stock market bubble, Japan’s day of reckoning approaches. The train has been a long time coming, but approach it does. In order to prevent a depression, Japan opted to have its federal government spend to support their economy and in the process issue a pile of bonds. It has racked up […] Read the rest of this entry
The Japanese economy went through 15 years of stagnation and 4 years of near zero growth since its peak in 1990. Since the reasons for their economic melt-down and ours are very similar, we can learn from their efforts to right their economy. What Happened in Japan: • The world’s 2nd largest economy was expanding at an unsustainable rate from a ballooning credit market. […] Read the rest of this entry
What happens when countries score a perfect 100% ? By that we mean achieve public debt to GDP ratios of 100% (yes, that’s a bad thing). It happened in Canada and in Sweden in the 1990s. Because it is coming to the US within the next 10 years, let’s see what happened and how they (Canada & Sweden) dug themselves out… First, before any […] Read the rest of this entry
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