Category Archives: Investment Calls
The greedometer registered 4600 rpm. 2011 continues to resemble a compressed version of 2007-2008. The mini greedometer is topping-out for this cycle. There’s a new leg down about to begin.
This is unreal. Early this morning central bankers made a surprise coordinated move to stop the banking system melt-down in Europe from worsening there, and from spreading beyond Europe. The debt-fueled financial system contagion has been slowly steam-rolling everything in its path. It had reached the point where banks in Europe could not stop it, were not lending to each other, and the ECB was unwilling/unable […] Read the rest of this entry
Either the US economy and stock market are about to “get well” and initiate another bull market, or things are about to take another leg down. My short term indicator -the mini greedometer- helps provide insight…. The past 4 weeks have seen a stunning amount (all-in?) of bluster, threats, hope, hype, and political games in Europe. Yet there remains no plan to solve […] Read the rest of this entry
Over the past few weeks gold has dropped from all-time highs in the $1900s to approx $1600. What’s going on? The short and simple answer is: Gold’s price ran up too far too fast. The more insightful answer is: • The price moved too far above its 50-day exponential moving average (ema) — the gold line in the graph below. It needed to come […] Read the rest of this entry
Amid rampant speculation, the Fed met for an extended two-day meeting this week. Either the Fed was going to announce something big, or they would announce something sort of big. What we got: The Fed is going to buy $400B in 6-30 year Treasuries, and sell an equal amount of short term (3 year and less maturity) Tnotes. This will happen during the […] Read the rest of this entry
Since the beginning of the year, the greedometer has been indicating the US stock market is going through a secular topping-out process. We had a run at the highs again in July (as expected) — when Triangle Wealth Management placed a warning of a massive impending stock market drop in the Wall Street Journal. A few weeks ago (mid August), the greedometer delivered […] Read the rest of this entry
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