Category Archives: Investment Calls
Big Picture: Warning: The mini greedometer (tactical risk indicator) is displaying readings previously only seen when the S&P500 was within 5% of a secular (long term) top. The greedometer (strategic risk indicator) is approaching dangerous risk levels as well. There is very little upside and a great deal of downside to risk assets (stocks, junk bonds, commodities, REITs) at this time. A much more […] Read the rest of this entry
Strategic Indicator: Greedometer Last week, the greedometer registered 5400 rpm, a respectable but not unexpected jump from the previous week 4800rpm. And with that, we have the end of the year-end rise in the greedometer. The 2011 set of greedometer readings resemble that of 2007. Indeed, both years saw the last or second to last week finish with a 5400rpm reading. Uncanny. And foreboding. (the […] Read the rest of this entry
The greedometer registered 4600 rpm. 2011 continues to resemble a compressed version of 2007-2008. The mini greedometer is topping-out for this cycle. There’s a new leg down about to begin.
This is unreal. Early this morning central bankers made a surprise coordinated move to stop the banking system melt-down in Europe from worsening there, and from spreading beyond Europe. The debt-fueled financial system contagion has been slowly steam-rolling everything in its path. It had reached the point where banks in Europe could not stop it, were not lending to each other, and the ECB was unwilling/unable […] Read the rest of this entry
Either the US economy and stock market are about to “get well” and initiate another bull market, or things are about to take another leg down. My short term indicator -the mini greedometer- helps provide insight…. The past 4 weeks have seen a stunning amount (all-in?) of bluster, threats, hope, hype, and political games in Europe. Yet there remains no plan to solve […] Read the rest of this entry
Over the past few weeks gold has dropped from all-time highs in the $1900s to approx $1600. What’s going on? The short and simple answer is: Gold’s price ran up too far too fast. The more insightful answer is: • The price moved too far above its 50-day exponential moving average (ema) — the gold line in the graph below. It needed to come […] Read the rest of this entry
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