Category Archives: Dow 5000 in 2013
Big Picture: Warning: The mini greedometer (tactical risk indicator) is displaying readings previously only seen when the S&P500 was within 5% of a secular (long term) top. The greedometer (strategic risk indicator) is approaching dangerous risk levels as well. There is very little upside and a great deal of downside to risk assets (stocks, junk bonds, commodities, REITs) at this time. A much more […] Read the rest of this entry
Strategic Indicator: Greedometer Last week, the greedometer registered 5400 rpm, a respectable but not unexpected jump from the previous week 4800rpm. And with that, we have the end of the year-end rise in the greedometer. The 2011 set of greedometer readings resemble that of 2007. Indeed, both years saw the last or second to last week finish with a 5400rpm reading. Uncanny. And foreboding. (the […] Read the rest of this entry
The greedometer registered 4600 rpm. 2011 continues to resemble a compressed version of 2007-2008. The mini greedometer is topping-out for this cycle. There’s a new leg down about to begin.
This year resembled 2007 in several respects. Immediately prior to both years: Wall St. forecast record earnings. The Fed and the majority of economists forecast 3% GDP growth. Yet both years saw wild volatility in stocks that finished where they started. Nearing the end of both years: Wall St was / is calling for record earnings the next year (it must be nice to always think things […] Read the rest of this entry
Italy will need roughly $400B in the first 6 months of 2012. A comprehensive program to keep Italy on life support will be several times this because it will have to support Italy for 3 years and include recapitalizing its banks. And if you’re going to bailout Italy, you’re going to have to cover: Spain, Belgium, France, and Austria (probably in that order). The numbers boggle the […] Read the rest of this entry
This is unreal. Early this morning central bankers made a surprise coordinated move to stop the banking system melt-down in Europe from worsening there, and from spreading beyond Europe. The debt-fueled financial system contagion has been slowly steam-rolling everything in its path. It had reached the point where banks in Europe could not stop it, were not lending to each other, and the ECB was unwilling/unable […] Read the rest of this entry
Today, the IMF stepped into the fray to arrest the creeping financial system melt-down in Europe. The ECB refuses to ramp-up lending to its own, so the IMF is putting everyone’s money at stake instead. Let’s see…. European banks are being supported/ bailed out by their national governments. These national governments are being further bailed out by the supranational entity- the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is hitting […] Read the rest of this entry
Either the US economy and stock market are about to “get well” and initiate another bull market, or things are about to take another leg down. My short term indicator -the mini greedometer- helps provide insight…. The past 4 weeks have seen a stunning amount (all-in?) of bluster, threats, hope, hype, and political games in Europe. Yet there remains no plan to solve […] Read the rest of this entry
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