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Category Archives: Banking

Short Economic Stories Feb 4 2012

US-only this week….. 4Q 2011 Earnings season is roughly 58% done — as of Thursday’s most recent data from S&P. •57% of earnings results beat, 32% missed, 11% met lowered earnings expectations. Again, this is below the 65% average beat rate for sandbagged results. Why do I refer to earnings estimates as sandbagged ? Because there’s a pattern of earnings estimates being lowered as […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories

Big Picture: The balance sheet recession continues here in the US, and in Japan and Europe. As Reinhart & Rogoff suggested in their book – This Time Is Different – we can expect recessions to come more frequently and economic growth to be more shallow than we’ve come to expect over the past several decades. The greedometer and mini greedometer are showing some very […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories

  (with thanks to the Financial Times for this) 2012 began with a bang. The first day of trading saw some of the largest gains for a first day of the year in decades. Too bad all those gains occurred before markets opened on Tuesday. Indeed the entire US stock market gain for the week happened before the 9:30am opening bell on Tuesday (no, of course this game is not […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories: Europe

We’re only a couple days from learning whether the Eurozone implodes or manages to stumble along for a few more months because of yet another hail Mary pass. There are several uniquely painful aspects to the eurozone financial crisis. The sheer breadth of it is top of the list. Trillions of euros are needed to plug the holes in the dam for the next few […] Read the rest of this entry »

Net exposure to Europe doesn’t tell us much

We’re told the large (systemically important) US banks have manageable exposure to Europe once all the long and short positions are netted with Credit Default Swaps. Supposedly the net exposure to PIIGS sovereign debt is $16B for Citi, and $2.5B for Goldman Sachs. That’s NET exposure. What’s the gross exposure?   If Goldman has $50B (I have no idea, this is just an example) in PIIGS […] Read the rest of this entry »

Europe needs a sucker. Pick up a mirror.

This is unreal. Early this morning central bankers made a surprise coordinated move to stop the banking system melt-down in Europe from worsening there, and from spreading beyond Europe. The debt-fueled financial system contagion has been slowly steam-rolling everything in its path. It had reached the point where banks in Europe could not stop it, were not lending to each other, and the ECB was unwilling/unable […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories: Europe

  Financial system contagion continues to spread and slowly spiral out of control. Interest rates demanded by bond buyers, and implied interest rates from credit default swaps (CDSs) are higher across the board. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a PIIGS country, BIGPIGS country, or anywhere else in the Eurozone.  The Brits must be downright gleeful they have access to cheaper money than Germany does […] Read the rest of this entry »

US Bank Stress Test. Version 3.0

The Fed announced another (the 3rd) stress test of US banks.  This time the test will include scenarios with a deep recession in Europe, and 13% unemployment in the US.  Plus -importantly- the results will be made public! This is going to force banks to clean up their balance sheets even faster: sell assets (good, bad, or ugly); raise capital via new share offerings; […] Read the rest of this entry »

What to expect, when you’re expecting financial system contagion.

Today, the IMF stepped into the fray to arrest the creeping financial system melt-down in Europe. The ECB refuses to ramp-up lending to its own, so the IMF is putting everyone’s money at stake instead. Let’s see….  European banks are being supported/ bailed out by their national governments. These national governments are being further bailed out by the supranational entity- the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is hitting […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories: US

The BEA lowered its estimate of 3Q GDP to 2.0%.  3Q is history and no ones cares. 4Q GDP is likely to start out strong as well (2% is strong?), but will drop towards 0 by year end. It is hard to see a 4Q GDP appreciably better than 1%. And it remains hard to see the US avoiding a recession kicking off in […] Read the rest of this entry »