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Client Letter. Don’t Panic. Profit.

This morning I sent this letter to my asset management clients….       Hello folks. The next few weeks are going to be unnerving to a lot of investors (not us though).  There are going to be days with very ugly market headlines.  Let me take this opportunity to remind you that we’re up almost 6% year to date and it’s been as […] Read the rest of this entry »

Horse meets water

Despite my efforts to engage with equity fund managers and convince them of the dire situation in global equities, I continue to be amazed at the garbage put out as research from long-only fund mgmt companies.  Guess what?  The future is bright and it’s a good time to buy my equity fund because prices have pulled back.  Never mind that they’re going to fall […] Read the rest of this entry »

2011 Deja Vu

When was the last time the SPX was flirting with a 20% drop –as it likely will be in the next 1-2 weeks? Answer: August 2011. Before that happened, I put this ad in the Wall St Journal on July 25th 2011. Let’s rewind to April & May 2011. I tried every news organization that mattered (and some that didn’t) to run a story […] Read the rest of this entry »

What crash?

The last time the Greedometer and mini Greedometer were showing similar readings to what they were 1 week ago (before last week’s stock market drop) was the week ending August 14 2015.  On Aug 18 2015 at 9:30am I posted this warning:  here The SPX was in free fall for 2 weeks and had to be stopped by NY Fed Prez Dudley. Granted we […] Read the rest of this entry »

Next Fed & ECB sugar bombs

The Fed and ECB will get the most bank (sorry, I mean bang) for their buck if they wait until after the BEA’s overestimated GDP report on January 29, and the BLS overestimated January jobs report on February 5th. If I were pulling the levers, I’d have the ECB announce a 30B euro/month increase in QE in the second week of February.  This might […] Read the rest of this entry »

Wake the heck up.

There is a growing acceptance among the investment industry punditocracy that we may well experience a 10% drop in the U.S. stock market. Thanks for conceding that as the SPX closes down 10% from its all time peak today.  Some of these brilliant folks are hedging by suggesting we may even see a 15% drop — but that it means nothing. They’re selling this […] Read the rest of this entry »

Stock Market Crash 2016

Last week I got into the biggest tactical short position I’ve ever had on the S&P500.  I will remain in this position until either: A) my proprietary trading system (the Greedometers) provides an exit signal (likely in 2-3 weeks — but it is early yet — this forecast will be tweaked this week); B) one of the top four major central banks introduces (or […] Read the rest of this entry »

BEA GDP: The Big Lie

Since this morning has the BEA providing its 3rd estimate of Q3 real GDP growth, I thought it would be time again to shed some light on what the BEA has been doing for the past 15 years.  The BEA has been over-estimating real GDP growth by an average of 1.16% on their 3rd estimates of Q3 real GDP growth. This is based on their own […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Non Event

Yesterday the Fed announced its first interest rate hike since June 2006. Result: stocks soared. Yawn. Is that supposed to happen?  No, well, yes of course…..   Sorry for doing a Draghi.  The answer is yes — when there is this much at stake.  The Fed -and by extension the other major central banks- cannot afford to have the great unwashed (hold mirror up […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB down. Fed to go.

  The biggest economic events of December were/are the Dec 3 ECB announcement and the Fed’s Dec 16 announcements.  1 down. 1 to go. Yesterday the ECB announced several new policy measures to help prevent inflation from becoming deflationary. As we all know, the delivery fell short of market expectations and risk assets plummeted. Indeed, safe havens like core European sovereign bonds plummeted, as […] Read the rest of this entry »