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Adapt or die

There has been a wall of email and blog comments and questions. It’s going to be a while to go through it. This might help…. I’m not selling my SPX short.  Not yet.  The SPX is wildly overbought on a short term basis and will pull back (look at RSI, MACD and ADX). Plus advisor sentiment is going to go berserk (bulls/bears at 4+) if the […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB & PBoC spike punch bowl

A few hours ago, the ECB President (Draghi) gave a speech wherein he re-threatened to do more to combat a weakening inflation and economic backdrop. Two hours after that, the PBoC announced it is loosening monetary policy and has dropped the interest rate on the 1-yr benchmark by 40bps to 5.6% and 1-yr deposit rates 25bps to 2.75%. The same thing happened to me […] Read the rest of this entry »

Europe GDP bounce. Translation: no ECB QE for Christmas

This morning’s headline is topped with a report that Europe’s GDP bounced in Q3. It was not much of a bounce mind you. Q3 is said to have grown .2% (0.8% annualized pace) over  a flat (zero growth) Q2.  Germany and France avoided contraction, but Italy did not. Upshot: No new ECB monetary policy candy (full QE) will be announced at the December 4th […] Read the rest of this entry »

Website Attacked

The Greedometer and Triangle Wealth Management websites were attacked last night. An outage of nearly 10 hours was sustained.  Steps have been taken to defend against future attacks.    

Why the Fed may increase the pace of QE3 taper

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser is on the newswires indicating he’d like to see QE3 wound-down at a faster pace.  This news probably shocks and worries many (especially in the investment business). However, I would not be surprised to see an increase in the QE3 taper announced at the March 19 FOMC meeting/press conference. March will likely see the QE3 program reduced from $65B to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Japan’s beggar thy neighbor QE is going to make enemies

There’s a great story in the weekend FT (Japan in danger of missing 2020 budget target). The upshot: Japan is not likely to meet its year 2020 target to produce an annual budget with no new debt. Japan has the worst demographic profile and debt to GDP of any developed country. How Japan escapes this mess without a decade-long depression is beyond me. Their […] Read the rest of this entry »

Collapse in Household Formation

Young people frequently get a bad rap / are accused of being lazy. I’m sure this has always been the case. What has not always been the same, however, is the current level of household formation. This chart speaks volumes about how young people are moving back with the folks instead of going into mortgage debt (like everyone that came before them).  2013 saw […] Read the rest of this entry »

Is the economy really growing at 3%?

I have previously documented the BEA’s abysmal job in estimating Q3 GDP over the past 14 years (here’s a link).  It turns out the BEA’s wildly overstated estimates extend to all quarters.  This short story provides the BEA’s estimates of 2008 GDP at several points in time.  First, here’s what the BEA now says about 2008 GDP: Q1  -2.7%,  Q2 +2%,  Q3 -2%, Q4 […] Read the rest of this entry »

Personal income is dropping to pre-recession level

Q4 personal income dropped very nearly to zero. Consumers -in typical fashion- kept spending though. Based on the data since WWII, the U.S. economy is probably going to fall into recession at some point in Q2.  Many of you will be familiar with the Chicago Fed CFNAI data I post every month. That data suggests the economy experienced a 1-quarter contraction in Q2 2012, […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter Posted

This week’s Greedometer newsletter has been uploaded. Advisor’s have NEVER been more bullish than last week. Hello contrarians! Insiders continued panic selling. And the Greedometers continued to show the most extreme levels of long term and short term stock market risk ever. No bubble here though….