Fee-Only Financial Planning in North Carolina

Contact Us at: (919) 228-6312

Earnings & Economic Update

U.S. economy on the verge of stalling: ECRI’s latest WLI is a -4.0  . The Atlanta Fed GDP data is presenting a 0.6% Q1 GDP growth picture. Retail sales are contracting since November at a pace almost never seen outside of recession. That’s not all attributable to cold weather! I expect Q1 real GDP growth to be around 1%, and the same for Q2. […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB QE. Finally.

Borrowing a page from the CFO playbook, yesterday the ECB sandbagged things by leaking news of a 50B euro/month QE program to be announced this morning. It then provided a “beat” by announcing a 60B euro/month QE program at 8:30am this morning. Can you tell that ECB President Draghi used to work for Goldman Sachs? SPX futures took the news in stride this morning. […] Read the rest of this entry »

2015 Forecast

This being January, stock market and economic forecasts abound.  Here’s mine…. Global economic growth in 2015 will be the slowest in decades and global stock markets will have one of their worst years in history.  The only reason this forecast does not materialize is new policy actions are taken by the world’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest central banks to stop the downward spiral. […] Read the rest of this entry »

Is the stock market right?

There is a distinctly different story being told by markets. Stock markets suggest a rosy future and are discounting more earnings growth. But junk bond markets -heavily correlated with stock markets- seem to be discounting an economic soft patch.  Hmmmm…. Commodities markets in the aggregate are also acting like they’re discounting an economic soft patch. Safe havens (U.S. Tnote & Tbond) markets are discounting […] Read the rest of this entry »

Adapt or die

There has been a wall of email and blog comments and questions. It’s going to be a while to go through it. This might help…. I’m not selling my SPX short.  Not yet.  The SPX is wildly overbought on a short term basis and will pull back (look at RSI, MACD and ADX). Plus advisor sentiment is going to go berserk (bulls/bears at 4+) if the […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB & PBoC spike punch bowl

A few hours ago, the ECB President (Draghi) gave a speech wherein he re-threatened to do more to combat a weakening inflation and economic backdrop. Two hours after that, the PBoC announced it is loosening monetary policy and has dropped the interest rate on the 1-yr benchmark by 40bps to 5.6% and 1-yr deposit rates 25bps to 2.75%. The same thing happened to me […] Read the rest of this entry »

Europe GDP bounce. Translation: no ECB QE for Christmas

This morning’s headline is topped with a report that Europe’s GDP bounced in Q3. It was not much of a bounce mind you. Q3 is said to have grown .2% (0.8% annualized pace) over  a flat (zero growth) Q2.  Germany and France avoided contraction, but Italy did not. Upshot: No new ECB monetary policy candy (full QE) will be announced at the December 4th […] Read the rest of this entry »

Website Attacked

The Greedometer and Triangle Wealth Management websites were attacked last night. An outage of nearly 10 hours was sustained.  Steps have been taken to defend against future attacks.    

Why the Fed may increase the pace of QE3 taper

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser is on the newswires indicating he’d like to see QE3 wound-down at a faster pace.  This news probably shocks and worries many (especially in the investment business). However, I would not be surprised to see an increase in the QE3 taper announced at the March 19 FOMC meeting/press conference. March will likely see the QE3 program reduced from $65B to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Japan’s beggar thy neighbor QE is going to make enemies

There’s a great story in the weekend FT (Japan in danger of missing 2020 budget target). The upshot: Japan is not likely to meet its year 2020 target to produce an annual budget with no new debt. Japan has the worst demographic profile and debt to GDP of any developed country. How Japan escapes this mess without a decade-long depression is beyond me. Their […] Read the rest of this entry »